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Transmission Channels of Financial Shocks to Stock, Bond, and Asset-Backed Markets : An Empirical Model
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Researchers, policymakers and commentators have long debated the patterns through which adverse shocks in a few markets may quickly spread to a range of apparently disconnected financial markets causing widespread losses and turmoil.This book uses modern linear and nonlinear econometric methods to characterize how shocks to the yield of risky fixed income securities, such as sub-prime asset-backed or low-credit rating sovereign bonds, are transmitted to the yields in other markets. These include equity and corporate bond markets as well as relatively risk-free fixed income securities, such as highly rated asset-backed securities and sovereign bonds from core Eurozone countries. The authors analyse and compare the results from linear and nonlinear models to identify and assess four distinct contagion channels characterizing both US and European financial markets. These include the correlated information, the risk premium, the flight-to-liquidity, and the flight-to quality channels. The results of this study support the theory that both investors and policy-makers ought to pay special attention to liquidity and commonalities in the perceptions of the probabilities of default, as channels through financial shocks propagate.