China's Democratic Future - by Bruce Gilley (Paperback)

About the Book

An eminent China expert considers how the Chinese Communist Party will be removed from power and democratic transition will take place.

Book Synopsis

The end of communist rule in China will be one of the most momentous events of the twenty-first century, sounding the death knell for the Marxist-Leninist experiment and changing the lives of a fifth of humanity. This book provides a likely blow-by-blow account of how the Chinese Communist Party will be removed from power and how a new democracy will be born.

In more than half a century of rule, the Chinese Communist Party has turned a poor and benighted China into a moderately well-off and increasingly influential nation. Yet the Party has failed to keep pace with change since stepping aside from daily life in the late-1970s. After nearly a hundred years of frustrating attempts to create a workable political system following the overthrow of the last dynasty, the prospects for democracy in China are better than ever, according to Bruce Gilley.

Gilley predicts an elite-led transformation rather than a popular-led overthrow. He profiles the key actors and looks at the response of excluded elites, such as the military, as well as interested parties such as Taiwan and Tibet. He explains how democracy in China will be very "Chinese," even as it will also embody fundamental universal liberal features. He deals with competing interests--regional, sectoral, and class--of China's economy and society under democracy, addressing the pressing concerns of world business. Finally he considers the implications for Asia as well as for the United States.
The end of communist rule in China will be one of the most momentous events of the twenty-first century, sounding the death knell for the Marxist-Leninist experiment and changing the lives of a fifth of humanity. This book provides a likely blow-by-blow account of how the Chinese Communist Party will be removed from power and how a new democracy will be born.

In more than half a century of rule, the Chinese Communist Party has turned a poor and benighted China into a moderately well-off and increasingly influential nation. Yet the Party has failed to keep pace with change since stepping aside from daily life in the late-1970s. After nearly a hundred years of frustrating attempts to create a workable political system following the overthrow of the last dynasty, the prospects for democracy in China are better than ever, according to Bruce Gilley.

Gilley predicts an elite-led transformation rather than a popular-led overthrow. He profiles the key actors and looks at the response of excluded elites, such as the military, as well as interested parties such as Taiwan and Tibet. He explains how democracy in China will be very "Chinese," even as it will also embody fundamental universal liberal features. He deals with competing interests--regional, sectoral, and class--of China's economy and society under democracy, addressing the pressing concerns of world business. Finally he considers the implications for Asia as well as for the United States.

Review Quotes

China's Democratic Future evinces careful research, clear writing, and a deep knowledge of China.... His work is worthy of the best in Chinese geomancy.--Richard Halloran "Far Eastern Economic Review"

China's Democratic Future is a provocative, engaging, and serious book previewing what may become one of the major political events of teh twenty-first century.--Merle Goldman "Journal of Democracy"

China's Democratic Future is a very smart and provocative book, as well as a tour ofancien regime China before it becomes ancien.--Nicholas D. Kristof "New York Review of Books"

China's Democratic Future is an often thought-provoking work of political futurology...The first thing to praise is the bold, normative vision of the book...Gilley has done us a service.--Stephen Green "International Affairs"

A deep knowledge of China...his work is worthy of the best in Chinese geomancy--Richard Halloran "Topics"

Although the author speaks to his immediate audience of China specialists such as himself, his prose is accessible to anyone wishing to study contemporary China in a serious way.-- "Booklist"

An ambitious book.--Josephe Cheng "Journal of Chinese Political Science"

Bruce Gilley, a China hand for more than a decade, puts forward the provocative hypothesis in China's Democratic Future: How It Will Happen and Where It Will Lead that within the next few decades, perhaps as early as 2010, China will become a democracy. He is in good company. Deng Xiaoping promised a democracy by 2035.--Sandip Roy "San Francisco Chronicle"

China is stirring, and Bruce Gilley has insightfully identified the evolving plot.--Billy O. Wireman "Charlotte Observer"

China seems out of sight, out of mind. Gilley reminds us that this is a monumental mistake.... He leaves no doubt that for the Chinese Communist Party the end of days is rapidly approaching.--James Harding "Washington Post"

For one vivid glimpse of the future, you can turn to Bruce Gilley's China's Democratic Future: How It Will Happen and Where It Will Lead, which lays out a thoughtful, unusually detailed scenario for democratic change in the coming years.-- "Baltimore Sun"

Gilley has challenged us all to think more clearly about the factors involved in shaping China's future.--Joseph Fewsmith "Taiwan Journal of Democracy"

Gilley has produced a lucidly written portrayal of a Chinese polity that may indeed exist one day.--Patricia M. Thronton "Political Science Quarterly"

The book is an enjoyable and thought-provoking read that is strongly recommended... This book applies high caliber scholarship to a daring argument...He does a profound service to the field by creatively enlarging our canvas, and reminds us that we are unlikely to find truth without taking risks.--Barrett L. McCormick, Marquette University "The China Journal"

This book is an optimistic prediction from a journalist with more than a decade's experience reporting for the Far Eastern Economic Review... this book is an important contribution to the debate about China's future.-- "Publishers Weekly"

About the Author

Bruce Gilley is an assistant professor of political science at Portland State University. He serves on the editorial board of the Journal of Democracy and is the author of Tiger on the Brink: Jiang Zemin, China's New Elite, Model Rebels: The Rise and Fall of China's Richest Village, and, with Andrew J. Nathan, China's New Rulers: The Secret Files. He lived in China and Hong Kong for more than a decade, working as a journalist for the Far Eastern Economic Review Magazine.