The Hype Cycle - by Arnold Schelsky (Paperback)

Book Synopsis

The media and the politicians are always screaming at us
about horrifying, end-of-the-world threats, and also about miraculous new
technologies that will save us and transform our lives. These are the two types of Hype--Fear Hype and
Hope Hype. They work together to
befuddle our minds and keep us on edge.

Both forms of Hype, according to Dr. Arnold Schelsky, are overblown, exaggerated to the nth degree, and scientifically
worthless. Climate change does not threaten us with extinction, machines can
never conspire against their human creators--and on the other hand, "global
governance" cannot solve any of our serious problems, while most of the
miraculous expectations for quantum physics are scientific nonsense.

AI is a focus of both types of Hype, with provably
false predictions that machines will be able to think and create, provably
false predictions that machines will replace employees causing mass
unemployment, and provably false predictions that machines can conceive
purposes or intentions hostile to humans.

Fear Hype
justifies the move toward a permanent state of emergency while Hope Hype
titillates us with wild dreams which can never be realized.

The political result is a system Schelsky calls "neo-feudalism." The
psychological result is a rapid oscillation between extreme, unwarranted Fear
and extreme, unwarranted expectations of salvation and bliss.

In the
life of any animal, overactivity is short-lived and restricted to emergency
situations. No living being can sustain overactivity for longer periods without
self-harm. Hype is a form of toxic
overactivity of entire societies. Today
the West is in an accelerated Hype Cycle, hyping ourselves from one peak of
excitement to the next.

Values
conducive to the Hype Cycle have been developing in the West since the
1920s. Schelsky favors renewed
emphasis on pre-1920s values.

Review Quotes

"Arnold Schelsky warns us in The Hype Cycle against exaggerated fears and hopes, so one must be careful to avoid exaggerations in praising the book. I believe, though, that it is indeed an important book which challenges conventional views on many subjects. I found the discussions of global warming, quantum computing, and scientism especially valuable. The author has an acute philosophical mind and an unusually wide knowledge of many different fields, both scientific and cultural." --David Gordon, Senior Fellow, The Ludwig von Mises Institute

"Hypes have a huge impact on our lives. They can be artificially triggered to manipulate and fanaticize people and they can lead to irrational and catastrophic decisions. If you want to understand how Hypes work, who triggers them, who benefits from them, and why we're not defenseless against them, you should read this excellent analysis by Arnold Schelsky, a book that may become a standard work." --Hans Georg Maassen, former head of the German counterpart of the FBI, the BfV, removed from office by Angela Merkel in 2018 after contradicting her on uncontrolled immigration

"An exciting, entertaining book, filled with bold insights which are often unexpected, thought-provoking, and yes, sometimes infuriating." --Ray Scott Percival, libertarian podcaster and author of The Myth of the Closed Mind: Explaining Why and How People Are Rational (2011)

"Arnold Schelsky distinguishes many different types of hype in his ambitious, novel, and very welcome attempt to survey, describe, and evaluate contemporary follies all of which involve the vice of chronic exaggeration or worse. The variety of contemporary Hype cannot be understood or evaluated without taking into account many different bodies of knowledge and disciplines--physics, mathematics, economics, biology, medicine, and philosophy, in particular social and political philosophy--a daunting task. But Schelsky, who is something of a polymath, is not daunted." --Kevin Mulligan, Professor Emeritus, University of Geneva, Switzerland