The Keys to the White House - by Allan Lichtman (Paperback)

About the Book

Forget the polls. Dismiss the pundits and political scientists. Using a set of 13 "keys", prominent historian Allan J. Lichtman's revolutionary system explains why campaigns--negative or positive--do not affect the outcome of presidential races and why the only issues that truly matter are determined long before November of election year.

Book Synopsis

With The Keys to the White House, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or "keys" (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election since 1860-including the 2000 election where Al Gore was predicted to and did indeed win the popular vote, and the 2004 contest for Bush's reelection-Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. Scholars of the electoral process, their students, and general readers who want to get a head-start on calling Decision 2008 should not miss this book.

From the Back Cover

The secret is out and the "experts" aren't pleased. In The Keys to the White House, 1996, prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman applies the revolutionary system with which he has analyzed every presidential election since 1860 to this year's landmark contest. While most media coverage will focus on the twists and turns of the campaign trail, The Keys to the White House, 1996 dismisses conventional campaign coverage and convincingly demonstrates why the factors that are truly relevant in electing the president have already been determined. Sure to be as controversial as it is compelling, The Keys to the White House, 1996 debunks numerous myths and sacred cows uncritically accepted by those who analyze presidential elections. Lichtman illuminates the real significance of the economy, ideology, scandal, social unrest, foreign affairs, third parties, and candidates' charisma. Furthermore, Lichtman explains why media coverage and campaign strategies - negative or positive - do not affect the outcome of presidential races.

Review Quotes

"Do me a favor. Don't read this book. Because if you do, it could put all of us pundits and political consultants out of business. Allan Lichtman has some nerve, revealing our trade secrets to the great unwashed public. Including the biggest secret of all, which is that the presidential vote is simple, rational, and highly predictable." --William Schneider, Political Analyst, CNN

"For generations, politicians, pundits, and poll-takers have been seeking their version of the Holy Grail-a surefire, guaranteed way to predict presidential elections well ahead of time. It may have been found in this book." --David Broder

"If you're into American presidential politics, The Keys to the White House is a must, and fun, read." --Toronto Sun

"Of the hundreds of books written about presidential elections, one of the best is Allan J. Lichtman's The Keys to the White House." --Roll Call

"This is a must book for political junkies who want to answer one important question about any campaign: Who's going to win?" --Baltimore Sun

"Of the hundreds of books written about presidential elections, one of the best is Allan J. Lichtman's The Keys to the White House." --Roll Call

About the Author

Allan J. Lichtman is professor of American history at American University.