The Rise and Fall of American Growth - (Princeton Economic History of the Western World) by Robert J Gordon

Book Synopsis

How America's high standard of living came to be and why future growth is under threat

In the century after the Civil War, an economic revolution improved the American standard of living in ways previously unimaginable. Electric lighting, indoor plumbing, motor vehicles, air travel, and television transformed households and workplaces. But has that era of unprecedented growth come to an end? Weaving together a vivid narrative, historical anecdotes, and economic analysis, The Rise and Fall of American Growth challenges the view that economic growth will continue unabated, and demonstrates that the life-altering scale of innovations between 1870 and 1970 cannot be repeated. Gordon contends that the nation's productivity growth will be further held back by the headwinds of rising inequality, stagnating education, an aging population, and the rising debt of college students and the federal government, and that we must find new solutions. A critical voice in the most pressing debates of our time, The Rise and Fall of American Growth is at once a tribute to a century of radical change and a harbinger of tougher times to come.

From the Back Cover

"The story of our standard of living is a vital part of American history and is well told in this fascinating book. Gordon provides colorful details and striking statistics about how the way we live has changed, and he asks whether we will live happily ever after. His answer will surprise you and challenge conventional assumptions about the future of economic growth. This book is a landmark--there is nothing else like it." --Robert Solow, Nobel Laureate in Economics

"A towering achievement that will utterly transform the debate on U.S. productivity and growth. Robert Gordon chronicles the stunning swiftness with which American lives have advanced since 1870, and raises profound questions about whether we have benefitted from one-offs that cannot be repeated. Combining eloquent description with forceful and clear economic analysis, Gordon's voice is gripping and compelling. This is economic history at its best."--Kenneth S. Rogoff, coauthor of This Time Is Different

"The Rise and Fall of American Growth is a tour de force with an immensely important bottom line. It is packed, page after page, with insights and facts that every reader will find fascinating and new. A profound book that also happens to be a marvelous read."--George Akerlof, Nobel Laureate in Economics

"Keynes dismissed concerns about economic trends by remarking that in the long run, we are all dead. Gordon turns this upside down by reminding us that we inherited somebody else's long run. If you care about the legacy we will leave future generations, read this richly detailed account of America's amazing century of growth."--Paul Romer, New York University

"Robert Gordon has written the book on wealth--how Americans made it and enjoyed it in the past. If we're going to create more wealth in the future instead of arguing about dividing a shrinking pie, we have to read and understand this book."--Peter Thiel, entrepreneur, investor, and author of Zero to One

"This book is as important as it is unsettling. Gordon makes a compelling case that the golden age of growth is over. Anyone concerned with our economic future needs to carefully consider his argument."--Lawrence Summers, Harvard University

"In The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Gordon looks at the evolution of consumption and the standard of living in the United States from the end of the Civil War to the present day. His work brims with the enthusiasm of discovery and is enriched by personal anecdotes and insights derived over a long and very productive career."--Alexander J. Field, Santa Clara University

"The Rise and Fall of American Growth makes use of economic history to argue that Americans should expect the rate of economic growth to be, on average, slower in the future than it has been in the recent past. Gordon is the most important exponent of the pessimistic view working today and this is an exceptional book."--Louis Cain, Loyola University Chicago

Review Quotes

"[The Rise and Fall of American Growth] challenges every political claim, and every pundit's remedy, regarding how to get the lackluster American economy to boom again in the decades ahead, as it once did a half-century or more ago. . . . [The book] represents the culmination of Gordon's many years of investigation into this key economic question of our age, namely: 'Why is it that the American economy has never been able to return to the happy boom years of our grandparents' time?' Why is it that, decade after decade, administration after administration, annualized productivity growth has only been about one-half to one-third that of the age of Truman and Eisenhower?"---Paul Kennedy, Tribune Content Agency

"[The Rise and Fall of American Growth] has set the wonky world of economics aflame."---Ryan Craig, TechCrunch

"[The Rise and Fall of American Growth] is this year's equivalent to Thomas Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century: an essential read for all economists, who are unanimously floored by its boldness and scope even if they don't agree with its conclusions."---Adam Davidson, New York Times Magazine

"[A] contentious new book."---Margaret Wente, Globe & Mail

"[A] fabulous new book. . . . Impressive."---Mike Walden, Morganton News Herald

"[A] lightning bolt of a new book."---Harold Meyerson, American Prospect

"[A] magisterial treatise."---Nick Gillespie, Reason.com

"A masterful study to be read and reread by anyone interested in today's political economy."-- "Kirkus Reviews"

"An essential read for anyone interested not only in US economic history but also American economic prospects . . . a tremendous achievement."---Diane Coyle, Enlightened Economist

"Every presidential candidate should be asked what policies he or she would offer to increase the pace of U.S. productivity growth and to narrow the widening gap between winners and losers in the economy. Bob Gordon's list is a good place to start."---David Wessel, WSJ.com

"Gordon argues that we are not going to get another surge soon and that there are several headwinds that are going to work against faster growth, including income inequality, education as a differentiator and not an equalizer, the debt overhang, and demography."---John Mason, TheStreet.com

"Gordon is not an alarmist, far from it. His is a sober voice of concern, of caution, which needs to be heard by those in the helm in America. And a fascinating lesson for ambitious and growing countries like India."---R. Balashankar, Sunday Guardian

"Gordon uses exhaustive historic data to buttress his thesis."---Greg Ip, Wall Street Journal

"Groundbreaking."---Zeeshan Aleem, Mic

"In the course of Gordon's book, a vivid picture of everyday life as our parents, grandparents, and great-grandparents lived it emerges. . . . What lingers in my mind, alongside these ideas, is a new, weightier sense of the past, and of what the people who lived in it ate, touched, heard, saw, and did. Reading The Rise and Fall of American Growth, I thought a lot about my grandparents. Gordon's book has made their lives more real to me."---Joshua Rothman, NewYorker.com

"Influential."---Martin Neil Baily, Fortune.com

"Magiserial. . . . The Northwestern University professor lays out the case that the productivity miracle underlying the American way of life was largely a one-time deal."---Matt Phillips, Quartz

"Magnificent. . . . Gordon presents his case . . . with great style and panache, supporting his argument with vivid examples as well as econometric data. . . . Even if history changes direction . . . this book will survive as a superb reconstruction of material life in America in the heyday of industrial capitalism."-- "The Economist"

"Massive."---Ben Casselman, FiveThirty Eight

"Monumental."---John Cassidy, NewYorker.com

"Northwestern Bob Gordon's new book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, offers a deeper explanation for the underlying mechanics behind slowed economic growth."---Jon Hartley, Forbes.com

"Provocative."---Barrie McKenna, The Globe & Mail

"Robert Gordon's The Rise and Fall of American Growth set out a thesis of technological diminishing returns that does much to explain an age of economic pessimism."---Lorien Kite, Financial Times

"So much of what the presidential candidates and the American people want to accomplish over the next four years and beyond depends on the U.S. economy growing faster, and more inclusively, than it has in recent years. This year's hot economics book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, by one of America's most distinguished macroeconomists, Robert Gordon, casts a pall on whether this is possible, arguing that the U.S. had a golden century of increasing innovation from roughly 1870 to 1970, but this was unique."---Robert Litan, Fortune.com

"So powerful and intriguing are the facts and arguments marshaled by Gordon that even informed critics who think he is wrong recommend that readers plow through his The Rise and Fall of American Growth, with its 60 graphics and 64 tables spread over more than 700 pages. You don't need to be an economist to appreciate or understand the book. His thesis is straightforward."---David Cay Johnston, Al Jazeera America.com

"The book is well written, and one can only be in awe of Gordon's mastery of the factual history of the American standard of living."---Robert A. Margo, EH.net

"The year's most important book on economics. . . . What Gordon has provided is not a rejection of technology but a sobering reminder of its limits."---Robert Samuelson, Washington Post

"The Thomas Piketty-esque economic must read of the year."---Rana Foroohar, Time

"This panoramic book makes good reading."---Shane Greenstein, Harvard Magazine

"What is novel about Gordon's approach to this problem is that he doesn't try to find political causes for our economic woes. . . . Exhaustive and sweeping in scope, and novel in its thinking about growth."---Chris Matthews, Fortune.com

"With a painstaking--and fascinating--historical analysis of American productivity, [Gordon] argues that the innovations of today pale in comparison to earlier in our history and that we might actually be entering a period of prolonged stagnation. He may very well be right."---Greg Satell, Forbes.com

About the Author

Robert J. Gordon is professor in social sciences at Northwestern University. His books include Productivity Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment and Macroeconomics. Gordon was included in the 2016 Bloomberg list of the nation's most influential thinkers.