The Rise and Fall of American Growth - (Princeton Economic History of the Western World) by Robert J Gordon

Book Synopsis

How America's high standard of living came to be and why future growth is under threat

In the century after the Civil War, an economic revolution improved the American standard of living in ways previously unimaginable. Electric lighting, indoor plumbing, motor vehicles, air travel, and television transformed households and workplaces. But has that era of unprecedented growth come to an end? Weaving together a vivid narrative, historical anecdotes, and economic analysis, The Rise and Fall of American Growth challenges the view that economic growth will continue unabated, and demonstrates that the life-altering scale of innovations between 1870 and 1970 cannot be repeated. Gordon contends that the nation's productivity growth will be further held back by the headwinds of rising inequality, stagnating education, an aging population, and the rising debt of college students and the federal government, and that we must find new solutions. A critical voice in the most pressing debates of our time, The Rise and Fall of American Growth is at once a tribute to a century of radical change and a harbinger of tougher times to come.

From the Back Cover

"The story of our standard of living is a vital part of American history and is well told in this fascinating book. Gordon provides colorful details and striking statistics about how the way we live has changed, and he asks whether we will live happily ever after. His answer will surprise you and challenge conventional assumptions about the future of economic growth. This book is a landmark--there is nothing else like it." --Robert Solow, Nobel Laureate in Economics

"A towering achievement that will utterly transform the debate on U.S. productivity and growth. Robert Gordon chronicles the stunning swiftness with which American lives have advanced since 1870, and raises profound questions about whether we have benefitted from one-offs that cannot be repeated. Combining eloquent description with forceful and clear economic analysis, Gordon's voice is gripping and compelling. This is economic history at its best."--Kenneth S. Rogoff, coauthor of This Time Is Different

"The Rise and Fall of American Growth is a tour de force with an immensely important bottom line. It is packed, page after page, with insights and facts that every reader will find fascinating and new. A profound book that also happens to be a marvelous read."--George Akerlof, Nobel Laureate in Economics

"Keynes dismissed concerns about economic trends by remarking that in the long run, we are all dead. Gordon turns this upside down by reminding us that we inherited somebody else's long run. If you care about the legacy we will leave future generations, read this richly detailed account of America's amazing century of growth."--Paul Romer, New York University

"Robert Gordon has written the book on wealth--how Americans made it and enjoyed it in the past. If we're going to create more wealth in the future instead of arguing about dividing a shrinking pie, we have to read and understand this book."--Peter Thiel, entrepreneur, investor, and author of Zero to One

"This book is as important as it is unsettling. Gordon makes a compelling case that the golden age of growth is over. Anyone concerned with our economic future needs to carefully consider his argument."--Lawrence Summers, Harvard University

"In The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Gordon looks at the evolution of consumption and the standard of living in the United States from the end of the Civil War to the present day. His work brims with the enthusiasm of discovery and is enriched by personal anecdotes and insights derived over a long and very productive career."--Alexander J. Field, Santa Clara University

"The Rise and Fall of American Growth makes use of economic history to argue that Americans should expect the rate of economic growth to be, on average, slower in the future than it has been in the recent past. Gordon is the most important exponent of the pessimistic view working today and this is an exceptional book."--Louis Cain, Loyola University Chicago

Review Quotes

"The Rise and Fall of American Growth is essential reading for anyone interested in economics."-- "Choice"

"The Rise and Fall of American Growth is likely to be the most interesting and important economics book of the year. It provides a splendid analytic take on the potency of past economic growth, which transformed the world from the end of the nineteenth century onward. . . . Gordon's book serves as a powerful reminder that the U.S. economy really has gone through a protracted slowdown and that this decline has been caused by the stagnation in technological progress."---Tyler Cowen, Foreign Affairs

"The Rise and Fall of American Growth is unquestionably an important book that raises fundamental questions about the United States' economy and society."-- "New Criterion"

"The Rise and Fall of American Growth, by Robert Gordon, is that rarest thing: a work of densely researched macroeconomics that is compulsively readable."---Bill Morris, The Millions

"#36 on Bloomberg's "50 Most Influential" List 2016"

""Based on an impressive range of quantitative data and literature . . . its approach to the concept of the standard of living is innovative."---Simone Selva, Economic History Review

"[The Rise and Fall of American Growth] is this year's equivalent to Thomas Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century: an essential read for all economists, who are unanimously floored by its boldness and scope even if they don't agree with its conclusions."---Adam Davidson, New York Times Magazine

"[An] authoritative examination of innovation through the ages."---Neil Irwin, New York Times

"[An] impressive book. . . . Gordon's book provides sufficient ammunition to show the colossal problems facing capitalism."-- "Socialism Today"

"[A] fascinating convergence of green and mainstream thought."---Tom Horton, Chesapeake Bay Journal

"[A] fascinating new book."---Jeffrey Sachs, Boston Globe

"[A] landmark book. . . . An impressive history of how the American people progressed in their standards of living and productivity in the 'golden century' of 1870-1970."---Stephen M. Millett, Strategy & Leadership

"[A] masterpiece."---Martin Wolf, Financial Times

"[A] stimulating book."---George Will, Washington Post

"[A] thoughtful new book."---David D. Haynes, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

"[A]n important new book."---Martin Ford, Huffington Post

"[I]mpressive."---Peter Martin, Sydney Morning Herald

"[M]asterful. . . . Gordon skillfully lays out information about the history and trends of productivity. One can learn a great deal. . . . The Rise and Fall of American Growth is a rare example of a work with solid economics that can be understood, and enjoyed, by nearly any lay person."---Ed Lotterman, Idaho Statesman

"A comprehensive history of American economic growth."---Eric Rauchway, American Prospect

"A fantastic read."---Bill Gates, GatesNotes

"A great achievement of synthesis . . . presents a fascinating and provocative thesis."---Walter Friedman, American Historical Review

"A landmark new book."---Gavin Kelly, The Guardian

"A new book by economist Robert Gordon--The Rise and Fall of American Growth--is causing quite a stir."-- "City A.M."

"A wonderful new book."---Jeff Sachs, Boston Globe

"A New York Times Bestseller"

"Ambitious. . . . The hefty tome, minutely detailed yet dauntingly broad in scope, offers a lively portrayal of the evolution of American living standards since the Civil War."---Eduardo Porter, New York Times

"As an economic historian, Gordon is beyond reproach."---Edward Luce, Financial Times

"Authoritative. . . . The book puts anyone who argues that sluggish growth is not the new normal on the defensive. He or she needs to argue against not just the evidence of continuing modest productivity growth but also against Gordon's compelling narrative."---John G. Fernald, National Association for Business Economics

"Compulsive reading."---Andrew Hilton, Financial World

"Gordon constructs a strong case using conventional economic principles and exacting data measurement."---Don Pittis, CBC News

"Gordon makes a compelling case for why the era of fast growth in America ended around 1970 and will not return in the foreseeable future, if ever."---Dick Meyer, DecodeDC

"Gordon's book offers the definitive account of how the many technological innovations between 1870 and 1940 dramatically improved life in the United States."---Richard A. Epstein, Hoover Institution's Defining Ideas

"Gordon's encyclopedic The Rise and Fall of American Growth, a new history of modern U.S. economic life, [is] perhaps the best yet written."---Jonathan Levy, Dissent

"Gordon's genius is to weave together economic history with the story of the technology, know-how, politic, demographics and medicine that made the astonishing progress of the US perhaps the most remarkable ever."---Sean O'Grady, The Independent

"If he's right, and one links this with growing income inequality, our would-be leaders will have difficulty in making the case for achieving the American dream through steady incremental progress achieved through collaboration and political compromise."---Michael Hoffmann, Desert Sun

"If you want to see how far we have come and how tough life was a century and a half ago, read Gordon's book."---David R. Henderson, Regulation

"In an important new book, economist Robert Gordon makes the case for pessimism. He believes that technologies like smartphones, robots, and artificial intelligence aren't going to have the kind of big impact on the economy that earlier inventions--like the internal combustion engine and electricity--did."---Timothy B. Lee, Vox

"In his unsettling new book, Gordon, who teaches at Northwestern, weighs in on the role of technology in the U.S. over the past century-and-a-half. He does so forcefully, so forcefully, in fact, as to wipe the smiles off the faces of most techno-optimists, myself included."---Peter A. Coclanis, Charlotte Observer

"Longlisted for the 2016 Cundill Prize in Historical Literature, McGill University"

"Looking ahead, judging presidents by policies rather than outcomes may be all the more important. In a new book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, the economist Robert Gordon argues that we are in the midst of an era of meager technological change. Yes, we now have smartphones and Twitter, but previous generations introduced electric lighting, indoor plumbing and the internal combustion engine. In Mr. Gordon's view, technological change is just not what it used to be, and we had better get used to slower growth in productivity and incomes."---N. Gregory Mankiw, New York Times

"Magisterial. . . . While the book has gotten attention because of its bold projection of slow growth in the future, this is actually just one small element of a magnificent and detailed presentation of how our economy has changed since 1870. Most people don't fully appreciate what life was like in the past and Gordon gives a blow-by-blow description of how people lived in America from 1870 on. In addition, he carefully explains how each new innovation was created and how its adoption changed people's lives."---Stephen Rose, Democracy: A Journal of Ideas

"Magisterial."---John Kay, Financial Times

"Normally, these kinds of big-think books end with a whimper, as the author totally fails to identify solutions to the problem he is writing about. But Gordon's conclusion offers some admirably definitive policy advice."---Matthew Yglesias, Vox

"One of our greatest economic historians. . . . Gordon's exhaustive research program . . . has knocked me back on my intellectual heels."---J. Bradford DeLong, Strategy + Business

"One of the most important books of recent years. . . . Powerful and impressive."---Cass R. Sunstein, Bloomberg View

"One of the Strategy+Business Best Business Books 2016 in Economy"

"One of the Washington Post's Best Economics Books 2016"

"One of Bloomberg View's "Five Books to Change Conservatives' Minds," chosen by Cass Sunstein"

"One of Bloomberg View's Great History Books of 2016"

"One of Bloomberg's Best Books of 2016"

"One of Financial Times (FT.com) Best Economics Books of 2016"

"One of Foreign Affairs' Editors' Picks 2016"

"One of Kirkus Reviews Best Nonfiction Books of 2016 in History"

"One of The Economist's Economics and Business Books of the Year 2016"

"One of The New York Times 100 Notable Books of 2016"

"One of The NewYorker.com Page-Turner blog's "The Books We Loved in 2016""

"One of The Wall Street Journal's "The 20 Books That Defined Our Year" 2016"

"Professor Robert J. Gordon's The Rise and Fall of American Growth is a magisterial volume that will benefit any serious student of economics, demographics or history."---Wendell Cox, New Geography

"Provocative."-- "Associated Press"

"Rich with detailed information, meticulous observations, and even anecdotes and stories . . . a fascinating read."---Ricardo F. Levi, Corriere della Sera

"Robert Gordon has written a magnificent book on the economic history of the United States over the last one and a half centuries. . . . The book is without peer in providing a statistical analysis of the uneven pace of growth and technological change, in describing the technologies that led to the remarkable progress during the special century, and in concluding with a provocative hypothesis that the future is unlikely to bring anything approaching the economic gains of the earlier period. . . . If you want to understand our history and the economic dilemmas faced by the nation today, you can spend many a fruitful hour reading Gordon's landmark study."---William D. Nordhaus, New York Review of Books

"Robert Gordon has written an engaging economic-based history of America. . . . Gordon is to be commended for helping to stimulate a national debate on the current low level of economic productivity."---Allan Hauer, Innovation: The Journal of Technology & Commercialization

"Robert Gordon's The Rise and Fall of American Growth set out a thesis of technological diminishing returns that does much to explain an age of economic pessimism."---Lorien Kite, Financial Times

"Robert Gordon's new book The Rise and Fall of American Growth has taken the economics world by storm this winter."---Myles Udland, Business Insider

"Robert Gordon's new book on productivity in the U.S. economy, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, is masterful. . . . Gordon skillfully lays out myriad information about the history and trends of productivity. One can learn a great deal."---Edward Lotterman, St. Paul Pioneer Press

"Shortlisted for the 2016 Financial Times and McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award"

"The author's method has the merit of being straightforward as well as robust. . . . The carefully woven tapestry offered by Rise and Fall leaves no corner in the shade."---Jean-Pierre Dormois, La Vie des Idees

"The book's great contribution is the tapestry it weaves of all the innovations that changed most Americans' lives beyond recognition in the century from 1870 to 1970."---Martin Sandbu, Financial Times

"The most important economics book of 2016."---Steve Chapman, Chicago Tribune

"This is a book well worth reading--a magisterial combination of deep technological history, vivid portraits of daily life over the past six generations and careful economic analysis. . . . [The Rise and Fall of American Growth] will challenge your views about the future; [and] it will definitely transform how you see the past."---Paul Krugman, New York Times Book Review

"This is a tremendous, sobering piece of research, which does a lot to explain the febrile, nervous state of modern Western democracies."---Marcus Tanner, The Independent

"This is the most important book on economics in many years."---Martin Wolf, Financial Times

"This spectacular history traces the rise and the plateau of the American economy since industrialization."---Jay Weiser, Weekly Standard

"Two years ago a huge book on economics took the world by storm. Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century . . . became a surprise bestseller. . . . Robert Gordon's tome on American economic growth stretches to 768 pages and its central message is arguably more important."---David Smith, Sunday Times

"Winner of the 2017 Excellence in Financial Journalism Book Award, New York State Society of Certified Public Accountants"

"Winner of the 2017 PROSE Award in U.S. History, Association of American Publishers"

"Zeitgeist-defining."---Myles Udland, Business Insider

About the Author

Robert J. Gordon is professor in social sciences at Northwestern University. His books include Productivity Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment and Macroeconomics. Gordon was included in the 2016 Bloomberg list of the nation's most influential thinkers.