The Science of Second Chances - by Jennifer Doleac (Hardcover)

Book Synopsis

Freakonomics for criminal justice, The Science of Second Chances presents a groundbreaking approach to criminal justice reform, revealing how small-scale interventions can reduce people's chances of reoffending and break the incarceration cycle.

When criminal justice expert Jennifer Doleac thinks about reform, she's not just hopeful, she's optimistic that second chances are possible--for the justice-involved population and the system as a whole. In The Science of Second Chances, she reveals her powerful approach to reducing crime and incarceration. Drawing on cutting-edge economic research and real-world experiments, the book presents a blueprint for reform that runs all the way through the system. Doleac shows how economists like herself approach big, complicated problems as if they were scientists in a lab, carefully testing different approaches and following the data to maximize impact. She explains how shifting the incentives people face can produce dramatic changes in the decisions they make, significantly reducing the number of people cycling through the prison system. From DNA databases that increase the likelihood of catching reoffenders to leniency programs for first-time defendants, she reveals a series of surprising interventions that actually work, along with cautionary tales about great ideas that never panned out.

Doleac doesn't have a "burn it all down" mentality but seeks to empower readers with practical, achievable solutions. She demonstrates that we can have both public safety and a smaller, less intrusive justice system--without waiting for big, structural reforms that might never come. By shifting focus from the enormity of the problem to the power of small, evidence-based changes, she offers a transformative approach to prosecution and punishment. The Science of Second Chances is essential reading for anyone seeking data-driven strategies to revolutionize the criminal justice system and create the society we want and need.

Review Quotes

"Most crime is committed by repeat offenders. Most prisoners will be released back into the community. With empirical rigor and clear prose, Jennifer Doleac's The Science of Second Chances tackles arguably the most important question in criminal justice policy--how do we get people to actually stop breaking the rules? A safer, more humane country is within our grasp if we test ideas, follow evidence, and bring promising ideas to scale. This hopeful and illuminating book deserves to be read by anyone who cares about crime and public safety."
--Matt Yglesias, author of the Substack Slow Boring

About the Author

Jennifer Doleac is the Executive Vice President of Criminal Justice at Arnold Ventures, a philanthropy focused on evidence-based policy. Before that, she spent over a decade as an economics professor, conducting academic research. She is a leading expert on the economics of crime and discrimination, and a vocal proponent of using rigorous research to inform policy. She frequently writes for outlets including The Washington Post, TIME, and Bloomberg Opinion, and she hosts the Probable Causation podcast on law, economics, and crime. Doleac holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Stanford University and lives in Houston, Texas. More information can be found at jenniferdoleac.com, or on X/Twitter at @jenniferdoleac.