Economic and Business Forecasting - (Wiley and SAS Business) by John E Silvia & Azhar Iqbal & Kaylyn Swankoski & Sarah Watt & Sam Bullard

Book Synopsis

Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecasting offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template to apply to your own variables of interest.

• Presents the economic and financial variables that offer unique insights into economic performance
• Highlights the econometric techniques that can be used to characterize variables
• Explores the application of SAS software, complete with simple explanations of SAS-code and output
• Identifies key econometric issues with practical solutions to those problems

Presenting the "ten commandments" for economic and business forecasting, this book provides you with a practical forecasting framework you can use for important everyday business applications.

From the Back Cover

Due to the Great Recession and the accompanying financial crisis, the premium on effective economic analysis, especially the two aspects of that analysis and accurate forecasting of economic and financial variables, has significantly increased. Economic and Business Forecasting introduces statistical techniques that can help characterize the behavior of economic relationships, testing whether certain series such as output, employment, profits, and interest rates exhibit a steady pace of growth over time, or if that pace has drifted.

Focused on a select set of major economic and financial variables--such as economic growth, final sales, employment, inflation, interest rates, corporate profits, financial ratios and the exchange value of the dollar--Economic and Business Forecasting employs econometric techniques and the statistical software SAS^(TM) serves as a template for readers to apply to variables of interest. These variables form the core of an effective decision-making process in both the private and public sectors.

Providing a practical forecasting framework for important everyday applications, this book considers questions including:

• How can we identify economic series that appear to be behaving in typical cyclical fashion compared to those that are not?
• Why have exceptionally low mortgage interest rates not spurred a pickup in housing as in prior recoveries?
• If a time series displays a cyclical component, how does it behave as we move through the business cycle?
• Do turning points in the time series lead or lag those of other series?

Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting with the proven guidance found in Economic and Business Forecasting.

About the Author

JOHN E. SILVIA is a Managing Director and the Chief Economist for Wells Fargo Securities. In 2010, he was recognized for the Best Inflation Forecast, the Best Overall Forecast, and the Best Personal Consumption Expenditures Forecast by The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

AZHAR IQBAL is an Econometrician and Vice President at Wells Fargo Securities where he provides quantitative analysis to the Economics group as well as modeling and forecasting of macro and financial variables. He has spoken at the American Economic Association, Econometric Society, and other international conferences.

SAM BULLARD is a Managing Director and Senior Economist at Wells Fargo Securities providing analysis and commentary on financial markets and macroeconomic developments.

SARAH WATT is an Economist with Wells Fargo Securities. She covers the U.S. macro economy, including labor market trends. She also works closely with senior members of her team to produce special reports and regional economic commentary on several U.S. states.

KAYLYN SWANKOSKI is an Economic Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities.